Why Fewer and Fewer Young People Identify as Non-Binary or Trans

For several years, the number of young people identifying as non-binary, transgender or queer appeared to be growing steadily. At secondary schools and universities in the United States, nearly one in ten students sometimes identified as non-binary. New research now shows that this trend has undergone a sharp reversal: since 2023, the number of young people identifying this way has been falling rapidly, in some cases to less than one-third of its peak level.

The Figures Behind the Reversal

Political scientist Eric Kaufmann charted this development in a report for the Centre for Heterodox Social Science. At Phillips Academy Andover in the United States, 9.2 percent of students still described themselves in 2023 as neither male nor female; two years later, that figure had fallen to 3 percent. At Brown University, around 5 percent of students identified as non-binary in 2022 and 2023, compared with 2.6 percent in 2025. Psychologist Jean Twenge confirmed the pattern with her own analyses of the Cooperative Election Study, a large ongoing US survey: among 18- to 22-year-olds, trans and non-binary identification declined steadily between 2021 and 2024.

The proportion of young people identifying as gay or lesbian has remained remarkably stable. The decline is concentrated mainly among those who described themselves as 'queer' or bisexual, and in non-binary and transgender identification in the narrower sense. That distinction matters: this is not a general retreat by the LGBTQ community as a whole, but specifically concerns the identities that gained popularity most rapidly over the past decade.

What Does Not Explain the Decline

Kaufmann tested several obvious explanations and rejected most of them. A general shift toward more conservative views among young people does not explain the decline: political preferences shifted far less during the same period than the identification figures. Nor do a return to religiosity, a decline in 'wokeness' in the broad sense, or less use of social media provide a conclusive explanation, according to his analysis. The trend was largely independent of these broader social movements.

One factor did receive partial support: young people's mental health, which deteriorated sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently improved. Because identity exploration and psychological vulnerability often go hand in hand, part of the peak may coincide with the most difficult years of the pandemic. However, this does not explain the full scale of the increase, let alone the speed of the subsequent decline.

A Trend That Behaved Like a Fashion

According to Kaufmann, the explanation that best fits the data is that identifying as non-binary or queer behaved like a fashion trend: a label that temporarily became attractive and spreadable in certain social circles, largely independently of underlying political or religious convictions. Such a rapid peak followed by an equally rapid decline fits better with a social trend that is fading than with a stable, broadly supported shift in how young people genuinely experience themselves.

This points toward what critics have long called the 'social contagion' hypothesis: the idea that identification spread through friendship groups, social media and peer pressure, independently of an underlying, stable gender incongruence. Research on this social spread can be found at transplek.nl. Supporters of gender transition care have long disputed this hypothesis. However, the sharp increase and equally sharp decline, precisely synchronized with age cohorts and school environments, make the hypothesis plausible again — although, as Kaufmann himself emphasizes, it remains one interpretation of correlational data and is not conclusive proof.

What These Figures Do Not Say

The decline does not mean that there are no longer any young people with a genuine, persistent gender incongruence, nor does it mean that homosexuality or bisexuality as such was a fashion trend — those figures have remained stable, after all. What the data do suggest is that a substantial proportion of the recent growth in non-binary and trans self-identification among young people was temporary and group-based, rather than an expression of a fixed, immutable identity. In the Netherlands, media sociologist Peter Vasterman previously estimated that 92,500 young people identify as trans or gender-diverse.

For policymakers, schools and clinicians working in gender care, this is a relevant finding. If a substantial proportion of non-binary or trans self-identification is shaped by circumstances and social influences, that all the more underlines why cautious, exploratory support — rather than rapid medical affirmation — remains the wisest course for young people. Why automatic affirmation in healthcare falls short is explained at genspect.nl.